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Inflation rises further in January

 

 

Indian Economic Update

 

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation surprised to the upside in January at 7.6% YoY vs. 7.35% YoY in the previous month. Food inflation moderated marginally to 13.6% YoY vs. 14.2% YoY in the previous month. Core inflation increased at a faster momentum to 4.2% YoY vs. 3.8% YoY.
  • Headline industrial production re-entered negative territory in December after a respite of a month, printing at -0.3% YoY.
  • Manufacturing output contracted in December, hampered by a high base, and a possible lack of domestic and external demand. 16 of 23 industry groups showed negative growth.
  • On a volume basis, industrial production has clocked 0.5% YoY in the first nine months of FY2020 as compared to 4.7% YoY seen in Apr-Dec 2018.
  • Standard and Poor's retained India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with stable outlook, saying the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to gradually recover towards longer-term trend rates over the next two to three years.

 

Global Update

 

  • US non-farm payrolls rebounded sharply in Jan 2020 rising by 225,000 against expectations of 160,000 increase and an increase of 145,000 in Dec 2019.
  • China's Hubei province reported 242 new deaths, double the prior day's toll, and confirmed 14,840 new cases on Feb 12. The rise in the number of cases, which came as officials adopted a new methodology for counting infections, is a sevenfold increase from a day earlier.
  • Three of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) top policy makers defended their monetary stimulus. ECB President Ms Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that she realises subzero interest rates and bond purchases can hurt savers and lead to overvalued asset prices such as real estate, but that governments should do more to boost the economy.
  • UK Government began a 10-week consultation setting out its plans for the "freeports" (or free trade zones).