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Economic Research Desk

NEWS FEED

India on called on WTO members to find a permanent solution to the long-pending public stockholding issue, saying it is directly related to achieving the sustainable development goal of zero hunger by 2030. India has been seeking amendments to the formula for calculating the food subsidy cap.

1 Days ago

MPC member Varma stated that with inflation forecast at 4.5% for FY25, a real rate of 2% was unwarranted and 1%-1.5% is sufficient, leaving a scope for 50-100 bps of repo rate cuts. He also sees space for easing due to the government’s aggressive fiscal consolidation and his view that the output gap is negative.

1 Days ago

India's private sector activity rose to a seven-month high of 61.5 in February vs 61.2 in the previous month, owing to faster expansion in order books and slower increase in input prices, according to HSBC flash composite PMI.

4 Days ago

MPC member Varma stated that with inflation forecast at 4.5% for FY25, a real rate of 2% was unwarranted and 1%-1.5% is sufficient, leaving a scope for 50-100 bps of repo rate cuts. He also sees space for easing due to the government’s aggressive fiscal consolidation and his view that the output gap is negative.

1 Hours ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

"At the February policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retained stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 5:1 vote each."
"Growth forecast for FY25 was revised higher to 7% (from 6.5% earlier). While the inflation forecast for FY25 was unchanged, near term quarterly forecasts were revised lower, including for Q4FY24. After seeing a sharp increase in system liquidity deficits on account of build-up in cash balances and higher currency demand, RBI has provided large quantum of liquidity via VRRs which is likely to continue till such time government does not deplete its cash balances (end-March)"
"Given the current trajectory laid out by RBI real rates are around 1.8% (1-year ahead) and this should increase further if monsoon is normal and food inflation starts to dip.We believe US Fed policy and domestic food prices become crucial determinants of change in stance. While our base case is for change in stance to happen in April, incoming data may push it forward towards June by when there will be more clarity from US Fed and monsoon"

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in January, the FOMC removed its tightening bias to signal that rate cuts could be in the offing in 2024. However, an immediate cut in March 2024 was ruled out. The FOMC Chair explained that the central bank will want to see continuation of the disinflation trend before it embarks on reducing rates.
Our base-case remains for status quo in March. We see a dovish guidance with the central bank likely to prepare markets for possible easing in the May-June policy meeting.
Continued disinflation will likely open up space for the FOMC to reduce the policy rate by 100bps in 2024, 100bps in 2025 and 50bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in February, the BoE maintained status quo in a split vote. It dropped its tightening bias while indicating that the central bank would review how long further tightening would be required. However, it emphasized that it remains concerned about elevated inflation.
We expect the BoE to maintain status quo in March while not providing an explicit guidance to ease policy.
As inflation slows further and labour market cools, we see the BoE easing policy around June to August policy meeting with a cumulative 75bps-100bps expected over 2024.

European Central Bank

In its latest policy meeting in January, the ECB maintained status quo while retaining its data-dependent guidance and emphasizing its need for a restrictive regime. Tight labour markets were expressed as a key constraint to pivoting towards easing policy.
In the March policy meeting, we see the ECB maintaining status quo and keeping its framework in place.
We expect the ECB to ease policy by 100bps over 2024 with the first rate cut expected in the June policy meeting.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts over 2024 accomapnied by a further 50bps cut in the RRR.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/calendar-events_27_Feb_2024.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 16 February 2024
 
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