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Economic Research Desk

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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NEWS FEED

Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said that India’s retail inflation is expected to be close to 5% in June, in line with the surveys conducted by the apex bank. He further stated that any consideration of changing the interest rate stance is premature, emphasizing the significant gap between current inflation levels and the targeted 4% while emphasizing that growth remains fairly robust.

4 Days ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the June policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 4:2 vote each, with two external members votng for a 25bps rate cut and change in stance to 'neutral'
Growth forecast for FY25 was increased by 20bps to 7.2%, with an upward revision for all the quarters. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 4.5% respectively. However, monsoon would be a key deciding factor and outlook would be clearer in August. Additionally, the fiscal glide-path would be known in July when the government presents its Budget. While some tilt is expected towards consumption, it would aid in increasing capacity utilization and demand recovery
If monsoon and fiscal outlook is favourable, a change of stance could be considered in the next policy meeting itself. However, in case global and domestic developments are not in favour, MPC would consider change in stance in October or December. Repo rate cut should follow after change in stance, with upward revision to growth implying no hurry to cut rates

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in June, the FOMC maintained status quo while provided a hawkish guidance via its 'dot plot' to indicate a higher policy rate profile for 2024 and 2025 respectively. The slew of economic projections made would suggest that the central bank is working with 'soft-landing' scenario. The FOMC Chair emphasized that future actions would remain data dependent.
Our base-case for July of status quo remains in place while the central bank could retain its hawkish guidance.
Continued disinflation will likely open up space for the FOMC to reduce the policy rate by 25-50bps in 2024, 100bps in 2025 and 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in June, the BoE maintained status quo in a split of 7-2 members within the MPC. The dissenting members voted for rate cuts. The guidance provided was dovish in which guidance of prospective rate cuts was provided.
The BoE could commence easing in August by lowering its policy rate by 25bps if disinflation shows up prominently as is expected by the central bank.
As inflation slows further and labour market cools, we see the BoE easing policy around June to August policy meeting with a cumulative 50bps-75bps expected over 2024.

European Central Bank

In its latest policy meeting in June, the ECB cut its policy rate by 25bps while indicating that future actions would remain data-dependent and that it is not on a pre-set easing course. Both inflation and growth projections were revised higher at the margin.
In its policy meeting in April, we see the ECB maintaining status quo while providing further guidance of a possible staggered rate cutting cycle that could in the offing.
We expect the ECB to cut rates by a further 50bps-75bps over 2024 that will be contingent on evidence of a further disinfaltion trend unfolding.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calender%20events%20as%20on%2015%20july.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 21 June 2024
 
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