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Economic Research Desk

NEWS FEED

Port strike ends as workers agree to tentative deal on wages and contract extension. The move ends a strike that had snarled East Coast and Gulf Coast ports since the beginning of the week and threatened US supply of fruits, automobiles, and other goods

10 Hours ago

The JP Morgan Global PMI manufacturing fell further from 49.6 in August to 48.8 in September reflecting ongoing weakness in the sector. At the same time, India's manufacturing activity, given by S&P PMI Manufacturing index, fell to an eight-month low of 56.5 in September (57.5 in August), as output and new orders grew at a slower pace.

1 Days ago

The Fed Chair Powell stated that the central bank will cut rates further, although the is not on any preset course. He said that the 50bps cut delivered in September should not be viewed as a sign that future moves will be as aggressive as the central bank will take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis responding to data and the balance of risks.

3 Days ago

MoSPI is working to modify the index of industrial production, as per FE. Apart from aligning the base year of IIP with the proposed new GDP series, the panel will explore the use of further datasets for IIP computation. MosPI has constituted a technical advisory committee, headed by Mridul K Saggar, a former member of the monetary policy committee.

4 Days ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the August policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 4:2 vote each, with the same pattern as the previous policy meeting
Growth forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 7.2% (Q1 revised lower). Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 4.5%. However, the near term forecasts (Q2FY25 and Q3FY25) were revised higher on the back of higher veggiie prices. Q4FY25 forecast was revised lower, with good progress in monsoon a positive for food inflation going forward. Additionally, faster-than-expected fiscal consolidation for the July Budget is another positive.
MPC would get better handle on food inflation by December since in October sowing of winter crops would have just started and new external members would have just been on-boarded. Given the emphasis on inflation (food) and bringing it down durably when growth outlook is favourable, we believe MPC would change stance in December and cut rates later.

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC commenced easing with an aggressive 50bps rate cut as it indicated that its focus has shifted to deterioration in the labour market and as disinflation was taking hold. While it indicated that future actions would remain data-dependent, it signalled via the 'dot-plot' that easing would continue over 2024 to 2026.
The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the November policy meeting with a risk of it easing policy by 50bps if economic indicators weaken sharply.
We expect a cumulative 225bps worth of easing by the FOMC over 2024 and 2025 assuming that a 'soft-landing' unfolds.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in September, the BoE maintained status quo while signalling that it could ease further at a gradual pace of inflation shows continued signs of softneing further.
In its next policy meeting in November, the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bps if as we expect services inflation moderates and labour market re-balancing continues to remain in place.
The BoE is expected to cut rates by 50bps in 2024 and by 100bps in 2025.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in September, the ECB cut the policy rate by 25bps while indicating that future actions would remain data dependent. It described the risks to the growth outlook being to the downside and risks to inflation outlook as 'balanced'.
Given the persistence in services inflation, the ECB is expected to maintain status quo in October while reinforcing the fact that it could ease policy further in a staggered manner.
Our base-case for the ECB easing the policy rate by 75bps over 2024 and 100bps in 2025 in response to below trend growth and easing in inflation pressures over the medium term.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum downpayment ratio from 25% to 15%.
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calendar-events-30sep2024.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 26 Sep 2024
 
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