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Economic Research Desk

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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NEWS FEED

The US economy grew by 2.9% QoQ SAAR in Q42022 (expectations: 2.6%) that was slower than the 3.2% witnessed in Q32022, although it was above trend pace of 1.8%. The underlying details showed that private consumption was robust contributing 1.4% to GDP and that net inventories added close to 1.5% to GDP. However, investment spending was weak that subtracted 1.2% from the GDP print. Net exports and government spending continued to be marginal positive contributors to GDP.

12 Hours ago

Procurement of wheat and paddy in quantity and value terms has risen significantly in the last eight years, on account of a hike in the minimum support price (MSP) and purchases made from more states, a senior food ministry official said on Tuesday.

2 Days ago

India's crude oil imports rose to a five-month high in December, government data showed on Monday, as refiners stocked up discounted Russian fuel amid a steady increase in consumption in the country. Crude imports for the month were up 2.7% from November at 19.52mn tonnes, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

3 Days ago

Several FOMC officials provided further indications that the pace of rate hikes could slow in the next policy meeting. Fed Governor Waller stated that rates have reached a restrictive territory and he backed moderation in the size of rate hikes. Philadelphia Harker stated more incremental steps in rates would be required while Kansas City Fed official George stated that the economy can avoid a sharp downturn.

4 Days ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In-line with expectations, the MPC hiked the repo rate by 50bps to 6.25% and left CRR unchanged. The MPC also tweaked the stance with “withdrawal of accommodation” being the focus and “remain accommodative” removed
The MPC revised the inflation projection higher by 100bps to 6.7% for FY23 on the back of lingering geopolitical crisis, higher crude prices, revisions of electricity tariffs and pass-through of elevated input cost pressures. Growth retained at 7.2%
We see 35bps or more repo hike in the next meeting. CRR to remain untouched for now. We believe terminal rate is still at 6%. However, sustained elevated crude oil price and pass-through of global inflation to consumers risks to our view.

Federal Reserve

In the policy meeting, the FOMC raised the policy rates by 50bps pushing the fed funds rate to 4% to 4.5% and kept its QT framework in case. It provided a hawkish guidance by indicating that a further 175bps rate hikes is on the cards over the remainder of 2022 reflecting concerns about persistent rise in inflation.
In the next policy meeting in July, we expect the FOMC to raise the policy rates by 75bps and continue to provide a hawkish guidance.
We see a cumulative 325bps hike in 2022 and 25bps rate hike in 2023. We expect QT to remain in place to the tune of USD 1.1tn over 2022-23.

Bank of England

In its last policy meeting in June, the BoE raised its policy rates by 50bps but provided a dovish forward guidance indicating that it might raise rates further if inflation pressures intensify further.
In the August policy meeting, we expect another 25bps rate hike with a possibility of 50bps hike that could be considered if inflation remains elevated.
We think that the BoE is close to the end of its tightening cycle. We see an additional 50-75bps rate hike before the tightening cycle ends. QT could remain in operation over 2022 and 2023.

European Central Bank

In its June policy meeting, the ECB hiked policy rate by 50bps indicated that it would end QE and provided a guidance that policy rates could get hiked going forward. It indicated that 25bps rate hike is expected in July and 50bps rate hike in September. It provided a hawkish guidance on inflation.
We expect the ECB to follow through with its guidance hiking rates by 25bps in July and indicate that it will continue to raise rates in response to a sharp inflation overshoot. It could also confirm that it will reinvest maturing bonds under the Pandemic Emergency Purchases Program in to sovereign bonds of Italy/Spain/Portugal.

People's Bank of China

The PBOC delivered another 50 bps cut in the RRR in December and cut the one-year loan prime lending rate by 5 bps to 3.8% reflecting ongoing concerns about the real estate sector and the economy.
We see prospect of further liquidity infusions via RRR cuts or OMOs to support the economy as the real-estate sector undergoes a multi-year period of under-performance.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calender_events_27Jan23.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 29th December 2022
 
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