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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

CPI inflation softened to 3.34% YoY in March, the lowest since August 2019, driven by food inflation at 2.7% YoY even as core inflation inched up to 4.1% YoY. CPI inflation for Q4FY25 now stands at 3.7% and FY25 inflation stands at 4.6%..

4 Hours ago

China exports' growth rose sharply above 12.4% in March as businesses kept front loading outbound shipments to avoid prohibitive US tariffs. Meanwhile imports continued to decline, falling by (-) 4.3%, as domestic demand remained weak.

1 Days ago

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

MPC reduced repo rate by 25bps for second consecutive time to 6% with a change in stance to ‘accommodative’ to support growth given global headwinds.Stance signals the direction of policy rate in the future (lower or pause) and not liquidity conditions per se. While RBI is looking at keeping liquidity in surplus to the extent of 1% of NDTL (surplus of INR 2.2tn), delinking stance from liquidity gives RBI operational flexibility.

Growth projection for FY26 has been revised lower to 6.5% (6.7% earlier) given impact of reciprocal tariffs on India. However, lower oil prices and policy support should limit the impact with growth. Given confidence on achieving inflation target, RBI has revised FY26 estimate to 4% (4.2% earlier). Given expectation of normal monsoon and current global backdrop, we expect inflation to show downward bias at 3.9% in FY26 before it inches up again in FY27

With balance tilting in favour of growth, we see another 50bps of rate cuts (cumulative 100bps). For deeper rate cuts, real rates have to be lower which implies weaker growth and inflation outlook. We believe India’s medium-term growth trajectory is intact and thus maintain 100bps of rate cuts

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC eased policy rates by 25bps in November while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. The Fed Chair emphasized that more easing could be required to bring the policy rate towards its neutral level.

The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the December policy meeting, although it remains a close call. The FOMC is expected to signal to the market that it will resort to a staggered easing path.

We expect aa further cumulative 100bps worth of easing over 2024 and 2025 resulting in a terminal rate of 3.50%-3.75%

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in November, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will resort to a staggered easing profile.

In its next policy meeting in December, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo while providing an unchanged guidance.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative 100bps over 2025 and a further 50bps over 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in October, the ECB cut rates by 25bps while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. However, it indicated that further easing could continue reflecting concerns about the growth outlook.

In its policy meeting in December, concerns about disinflation and growth could prompt the ECB to cut rates by 25bps.

Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 125bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Key economic outlook and market insights by industry experts

27 Mar 25 03:30 PM Exclusive Videos

Impact of Budget & Monetary Policy on Markets

13 Feb 25 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

29 Jan 25 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Rupee Vs Dollar: Trade Policies Strengthening Dollar?

23 Dec 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Nakshatra – An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

18 Dec 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

{"GLOBAL FX PROJECTIONS":[{"title":"USD/INR","first":"86.50-87.50","second":"87.50-88.50","third":"88.50-89.50","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"EUR/USD","first":"1.06-1.08","second":"1.08-1.10","third":"1.09-1.11","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"GBP/USD","first":"1.27-1.29","second":"1.29-1.31","third":"1.31-1.33","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/JPY","first":"146.00-148.00","second":"144.00-146.00","third":"142.00-144.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"AUD/USD","first":"0.62-0.64","second":"0.62-0.64","third":"0.64-0.66","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"USD/CNY","first":"7.20-7.30","second":"7.25-7.35","third":"7.30-7.40","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"INDIA INTEREST RATES":[{"title":"Repo rate (%)","first":"6.25","second":"6.00","third":"6.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"SDF (%)","first":"6.00","second":"5.75","third":"5.75","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"10-year benchmark (%)","first":"6.70","second":"6.60","third":"6.60","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"GLOBAL RATES":[{"title":"UST 2 year (%)","first":"4.00-4.20","second":"3.90-4.10","third":"3.80-4.00","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UST 10 year (%)","first":"4.20-4.40","second":"4.20-4.40","third":"4.10-4.30","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"German bund 10 year (%)","first":"2.30-2.50","second":"2.10-2.30","third":"2.00-2.20","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"JPY 10 year (%)","first":"1.30-1.50","second":"1.40-1.60","third":"1.50-1.70","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"UK 10 year (%)","first":"4.45-4.65","second":"4.35-4.55","third":"4.25-4.45","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}],"COMMODITIES":[{"title":"Brent crude (USD/bbl)","first":"75","second":"74","third":"72","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"},{"title":"Gold (USD/oz)","first":"2680","second":"2740","third":"2800","monthrangeone":"Q12025","monthrangetwo":"Q22025","monthrangethree":"Q32025"}]}

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 13 february 2025

Q12025

Q22025

Q32025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

NEWS FEED

i360 Indices

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

Events

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

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