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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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NEWS FEED

The ECB cut its policy rate by 25bps on expected lines while retaining its data-dependent guidance by stating that decisions will be taken on a meeting by meeting basis.

1 Hours ago

The US CPI inflation printed at 2.5% YoY in August declining from 2.9% YoY in the previous month and above our expectations of 2.4%. On a sequential basis, CPI inflation remained steady at 0.2% MoM on expected lines. Core CPI inflation picked up at the margin by 0.3% MoM in August printing slightly above our expectations (0.2%) from 0.2% in July. The mild upside surprise came from shelter inflation

1 Days ago

US inflation-adjusted household income increased but poverty rates showed only modest changes last year, the U.S. Census Bureau reported, offering a mixed snapshot of how American households fared as the economy returned to pre-coronavirus pandemic growth levels, job growth boomed and inflation eased.

2 Days ago

The US House of Representatives passed legislation that would blacklist Chinese biotech companies and their subsidiaries in 306-81 vote. The bill will now pass to the Senate for approval.

3 Days ago

US employment increased less than expected in August by 142K, but a drop in the jobless rate to 4.2% suggested the labor market was not falling off the cliff to warrant a half-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month.

4 Days ago

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the August policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 4:2 vote each, with the same pattern as the previous policy meeting

Growth forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 7.2% (Q1 revised lower). Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 4.5%. However, the near term forecasts (Q2FY25 and Q3FY25) were revised higher on the back of higher veggiie prices. Q4FY25 forecast was revised lower, with good progress in monsoon a positive for food inflation going forward. Additionally, faster-than-expected fiscal consolidation for the July Budget is another positive.

MPC would get better handle on food inflation by December since in October sowing of winter crops would have just started and new external members would have just been on-boarded. Given the emphasis on inflation (food) and bringing it down durably when growth outlook is favourable, we believe MPC would change stance in December and cut rates later.

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in July, the FOMC maintained status quo while provided strong hints that rate cuts could commence from the next policy meeting given that focus was shifting from elevated inflation to weakening labour markets. However, the FOMC Chair emphasized that actions would remain 'data-dependent'.

Our base-case is for the FOMC to commence easing policy in September with a 25bps cut expected while indicating that easing could be front-loaded.

We expect 75bps cumulative cuts by the FOMC over 2024 followed by 100bps easing in 2025 and a further 50bps easing in 2026 in response to disinflation and a soft labour market.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in August, the BoE reduced its policy rate by 25bps in a split 5-4 vote while signalling that future actions could remain data-dependent and that it could embark on a staggered easing cycle going forward.

In its next policy meeting in September, we expect the BoE to maintain status quo given that wages still remain elevated and core services sticky.

As core inflation shows signs of slowing at a gradual pace, we see scope for the BoE to cut the policy rate by 25bps in November 2024 followed by 100bps cut in 2025.

European Central Bank

In its last policy meeting in July, the ECB maintained status quo while emphasizing that risks to both growth outlook and inflation outlook were to the downside. The bias was given to continue with easing policy.

In its policy meeting in September, we see the ECB cutting its policy rate by 25bps while emphasizing that future actions would remain data dependent.

Our base-case for the ECB easing the policy rate by 75bps over 2024 and 100bps in 2025 in response to below trend growth and easing in inflation pressures remains in place.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs. In its last policy meeting, it maintained status quo while indicating that it will retain its accommodative stance.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

15 Jul 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Indian economy: Stronger for longer

07 Jun 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Fireside chat on India in a Goldilocks economy

07 Jun 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Q&A on Indian economic outlook post-elections

07 Jun 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

India breaking out

15 Jan 24 03:05 PM Media Bytes

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 05 Sep 2024

Q32024

Q42024

Q12025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

Any information contained herein, should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy, sell or otherwise invest or deal in any securities, financial products/instruments or services offered by ICICI Bank or any other entity/person. ICICI Bank or any of its employees, officers and agents are not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. This content is generic and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Before entering into any transaction related to the information contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction and should seek your own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of entering into such transactions.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

NEWS FEED

i360 Indices

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

Events

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

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