CALL
1800 1080
icon_notification notification-animation 5
GET A CALL BACK

Want us to help you with anything?
Request a Call back

This field is required Only alphabetes are allowed
This field is required Only alphabetes are allowed
Please enter valid number
Please enter valid email
Please select product type
Please enter valid pincode

Thank you for your request.

Your reference number is CRM

Our executive will contact you shortly

Economic Research Desk

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

View All

Morning Market Starter

READ MORE Daily Reports
21 Sep 23 09:00 AM

The Weekly Update: Trading the hawkish FOMC

READ MORE Weekly Reports
18 Sep 23 08:45 PM

Gold prices: outlook looks constructive!

READ MORE Monthly Reports
18 Sep 23 02:00 PM

ECB delivers a dovish rate hike

READ MORE Economic Reports
15 Sep 23 04:15 PM

UFI-05.06.22

READ MORE i360 Indices
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

FOMC provided a hawkish guidance!

READ MORE Central Bank
21 Sep 23 10:35 AM

NEWS FEED

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%, while providing a hawkish guidance. It warned that sticky inflation could warrant at least one more rate hike this year. GDP growth projections were raised from 1% to 2% for 2023 and from 1.1% to 1.5% for 2024. Inflation projections were largely left unchanged.

12 Hours ago

ICICI Bank expects the FOMC to: (a) maintain status quo while providing a hawkish guidance, (b) ‘dot-plot’ to show that the median of FOMC members keep the terminal rate unchanged at 5.5%-5.75% while increasing the terminal rate to 4.75%-5.00%, (c) raise growth projections for 2023 from 1% to 2%, (d) lower unemployment rate projections and (e) keep inflation projections above the 2% threshold for 2023-2025..

1 Days ago

The Centre’s advance direct tax receipts for Q2FY24 from companies, LLPs and individuals rose by a robust 24% YoY to Rs. 2.4tn. This was aided by a sharp increase in income tax receipts and a rebound in corporate tax collections.

3 Days ago

PL
Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services
img-alt
img-alt
img-alt
[{"title":"UFI-05.06.22","description":" ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-05.06.22.pdf","durl":"/content/experience-fragments","murl":"","datetime":"05 Jun 22 09:00 AM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-29.05.22","description":" During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-29.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"29 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-22.05.22","description":" During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-22.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"22 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-15.05.22","description":" During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-15.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"15 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]},{"title":"UFI-08.05.22","description":" Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more. \n","type":"article","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/i360-indices/UFI-08.05.22.pdf","durl":"","murl":"","datetime":"08 May 22 12:00 PM","youtubeUrl":"","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/research-reports/i360-indices"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["i360 Indices"]}]

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In the August policy meet, the MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% and retained the stance at withdrawal of accommodation. The vote to keep the repo rate unchanged was unanimous, while the vote to retain the stance was 5:1. As on date, the cumulative rate hikes stood at 250bps since May 2022 policy.
Inflation estimate for FY24 was upped by 30bps to 5.4%. As per the new trajectory, the MPC expects inflation at 6.2% in Q2, 5.7% in Q3, 5.2% in Q4FY24 and 5.2% in Q1FY25. It retained growth estimate for FY24 at 6.5%.
We expect Q2FY24 inflation at 6.8%, 60bps higher than MPC's forecast. Given the committee's inflation forecast for Q1FY25, real rate is estimated to be around 1.3%. Growth is likely to be stronger in H1FY24 compared to H2. We believe the MPC will look through the recent spike in food inflation as it is transient. Hence, our base case is a long pause on rates. However, we cannot rule out a hike in the October policy is the MPC assesses inflation pressures to have generalized. We expect rate cuts to begin in Q2FY25.

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in July, the FOMC raised their policy rate by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50% while retaining its QT framework. However, it provided a data dependent guidance in terms of its future rate hikes are considered while committing to its need to maintain a restrictive framework.
In the next policy meeting in September, we think that the decision to raise rates by 25bps will be a close call that will remain contingent on US labour market developments.
We would not rule out a further 25bps rate hike either in September or November so as to ensure that disinflationary forces remain firmly in place resulting in a terminal rate of 5.5%-5.75% that will be followed by a prolonged pause. The QT program is likely to remain in place.

Bank of England

In its last policy meeting in June, the BoE raised rates by 25bps to the 4.5% mark while indicating that further tightening could be in store reflecting an improved economic outlook and elevated inflation rates.
In its upcoming policy meeting in June, we expect the BoE to raise rates by 25bps while keeping up expectations for further tightening.
We would not rule out a further 25bps increase in the policy rate over 2023 resulting in a possible terminal rate of 5%.

European Central Bank

In its last policy meeting in July, the ECB raised the policy rates by 25bps to the 3.75% mark while pivoting a data-dependent guidance. It provided dovish messages by stating that there was strong indications that disinflationary pressures were taking hold.
In its September policy meeting, we would not rule out a 25bps hike, although the final outcome will be a close call.
We expect a terminal rate of 4.00% that will be followed by a prolonged pause.

People's Bank of China

Over 2023, the PBOC has eased policy rates by 10bps while providing a dovish guidance. Liquidity infusion via OMOs have remained in place.
Given that the economy appears to be on a much weaker footing than we previously assumed, we would not rule out a further 15bps-25bps cut in policy rates accompanied by reductions in the RRR.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/calendar-events_21Sep2023.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

[{"title":"Real Estate and Urbanisation to Boost Economy","description":"Excerpts of the Panel discussion with Mr B. Prasanna Head - Global Markets - Sales, Trading and Research at Credai STATECON 2023 in West Bengal","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/credai-bengal-statecon-2023-d.png","murl":"","datetime":"15 Sep 23 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/2c2ChfkX4Lg","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/media-bytes"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Media Bytes"]},{"title":"India de-coupling: A myth or reality?","description":"Excerpts of the Fireside chat with Mr B. Prasanna Head - Global Markets - Sales, Trading and Research at the conference in Singapore","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/india-decoupled-myth-or-reality-d.jpg","murl":"","datetime":"15 Jun 23 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/e0SnZqmLgj8","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"Opportunities & Trends The India Story Ahead!","description":"Excerpts of the Fireside chat with Mr B. Prasanna Head - Global Markets - Sales, Trading and Research at Business Banking RENDEZVOUS (Kolkata)","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/bbr-kolkata-d.jpg","murl":"","datetime":"09 Jun 23 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/zmo4wkKeCS0","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/exclusive-videos"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Exclusive Videos"]},{"title":"The Key Highlights From The RBI Monetary Policy, June 08, 2023","description":"Mr. B. Prasanna, Group Head - Global Markets - Sales, Trading and Research, ICICI Bank, sharing his views on the unexpected Hawkish pause from MPC.","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/mpc-june-cnbc-1.png","murl":"","datetime":"08 Jun 23 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/aADqPpEKkcU","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/media-bytes"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Media Bytes"]},{"title":"Growth, Monetary Policies & Markets","description":"Excerpts of the Fireside chat with Mr B. Prasanna Head - Global Markets - Sales, Trading and Research at Business Banking RENDEZVOUS (Mumbai)","type":"video","sharewa":"","sharetw":"","shareli":"","sharefb":"","emailLink":"","pdfLink":"","durl":"/content/dam/icicibank/icici-assets/corporate/globaltradeservice/treasurers-corner/bbr-mumbai-d.jpg","murl":"","datetime":"08 Jun 23 03:05 PM","youtubeUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/dohHvf_gASI","categoryTag":["icicibank:erg/treasurer-s-corner/media-bytes"],"chartLink":null,"tagTitle":["Media Bytes"]}]

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 28 July 2023
 
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

 

Any information contained herein, should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy, sell or otherwise invest or deal in any securities, financial products/instruments or services offered by ICICI Bank or any other entity/person. ICICI Bank or any of its employees, officers and agents are not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. This content is generic and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Before entering into any transaction related to the information contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction and should seek your own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of entering into such transactions.