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Economic Research Desk

NEWS FEED

ECB policymakers provided divergent views on the future course of monetary policy. The European Central Bank is on track to start cutting interest rates next month but will need to keep policy in restrictive territory through 2024, according to Chief Economist Philip Lane. On the other hand, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that the central bank should not rule out cutting rates in both the June and July policy meetings respectively.

4 Hours ago

China pips US to be India’s largest trade partner in FY24. Merchandise trade with China stood at USD 118.4bn in FY24, growing by 4.04% YoY while with the US there was a contraction of 8.59% YoY to USD 118.2 bn.

1 Days ago

RBI's Central Board of Directors approved a record dividend transfer of INR 2.10tn for FY24. The amount is more than double of the budgeted INR 1.02tn, shoring up fiscal revenues. The higher-than-expected dividend of INR 2.11 tn from the RBI will let the Centre reduce its market borrowings in FY25 by over 0.37% of the GDP if other budget numbers hold. Read the report to know the latest global and domestic developments.

4 Days ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the April policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 5:1 vote each, with one external member votng for a rate cut and change in stance to 'neutral'
Growth and inflation forecasts for FY25 were retained at 7% and 4.5% respectively. Notably, while CPI forecast was kept unchanged, inflation estimate for all quarters other than Q3 was revised lower. RBI sees 4% inflation target in sight in March 2026. Despite this, MPC did not change stance since growth momentum gives MPC room to wait for inflation to ease from current 5% level before easing.
A normal monsoon should ensure lower food inflation, which gives MPC room to change stance in August when it can see how rains have played out. It also gives time to evaluate how energy prices are moving and the impact on domestic inflation as well as turn of global monetary cycle. Real rates are likely to peak at 2.7% in Q2 and at 2% in Q4FY25 if rates are unchanged. Thi sgives the MPC room for a 50bps rate cut cycle starting October, depending upon domestic and global factors

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in March, the FOMC maintained status quo, upgraded its growth as well as its inflation projections and emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive framework. The 'dot-plot' maintained its guidance of 75bps cut for 2024, changed its guidance from 100bps to 75bps cut for 2025 and indicated a further 75bps cut could take place in 2026.
Our base-case remains of status quo in May with the central bank emphasizing 'data-dependence' in terms of its future decision making.
Continued disinflation will likely open up space for the FOMC to reduce the policy rate by 75bps in 2024, 100bps in 2025 and 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in March, the BoE maintained status quo while the voting pattern among the MPC members changed from 6-2-1 as two members voted for a rate hike in the previous policy meeting to 8-1 while it retained the need to maintain its restrictive framework.
We expect the BoE to maintain status quo in May while not providing an explicit guidance to ease policy.
As inflation slows further and labour market cools, we see the BoE easing policy around June to August policy meeting with a cumulative 75bps expected over 2024.

European Central Bank

In its latest policy meeting in March, the ECB maintained status quo while indicating that it will have more information available by June in deciding on whether it would want to cut policy rates. Its economic projections showed that growth was expected to remain flat while disinflation was expected to continue to remain in place.
In its policy meeting in April, we see the ECB maintaining status quo while providing further guidance of a possible staggered rate cutting cycle that could in the offing.
We expect the ECB to ease policy by 100bps over 2024 with the first rate cut expected in the June policy meeting.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs.
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts over 2024 accomapnied by a further 50bps cut in the RRR.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/calendar-events_28%20may%202024.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 22 April 2024
 
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