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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

Port strike ends as workers agree to tentative deal on wages and contract extension. The move ends a strike that had snarled East Coast and Gulf Coast ports since the beginning of the week and threatened US supply of fruits, automobiles, and other goods

1 Days ago

The JP Morgan Global PMI manufacturing fell further from 49.6 in August to 48.8 in September reflecting ongoing weakness in the sector. At the same time, India's manufacturing activity, given by S&P PMI Manufacturing index, fell to an eight-month low of 56.5 in September (57.5 in August), as output and new orders grew at a slower pace.

2 Days ago

The Fed Chair Powell stated that the central bank will cut rates further, although the is not on any preset course. He said that the 50bps cut delivered in September should not be viewed as a sign that future moves will be as aggressive as the central bank will take decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis responding to data and the balance of risks.

4 Days ago

Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the August policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 4:2 vote each, with the same pattern as the previous policy meeting

Growth forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 7.2% (Q1 revised lower). Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for FY25 was kept unchanged at 4.5%. However, the near term forecasts (Q2FY25 and Q3FY25) were revised higher on the back of higher veggiie prices. Q4FY25 forecast was revised lower, with good progress in monsoon a positive for food inflation going forward. Additionally, faster-than-expected fiscal consolidation for the July Budget is another positive.

MPC would get better handle on food inflation by December since in October sowing of winter crops would have just started and new external members would have just been on-boarded. Given the emphasis on inflation (food) and bringing it down durably when growth outlook is favourable, we believe MPC would change stance in December and cut rates later.

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC commenced easing with an aggressive 50bps rate cut as it indicated that its focus has shifted to deterioration in the labour market and as disinflation was taking hold. While it indicated that future actions would remain data-dependent, it signalled via the 'dot-plot' that easing would continue over 2024 to 2026.

The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the November policy meeting with a risk of it easing policy by 50bps if economic indicators weaken sharply.

We expect a cumulative 225bps worth of easing by the FOMC over 2024 and 2025 assuming that a 'soft-landing' unfolds.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in September, the BoE maintained status quo while signalling that it could ease further at a gradual pace of inflation shows continued signs of softneing further.

In its next policy meeting in November, the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bps if as we expect services inflation moderates and labour market re-balancing continues to remain in place.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by 50bps in 2024 and by 100bps in 2025.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in September, the ECB cut the policy rate by 25bps while indicating that future actions would remain data dependent. It described the risks to the growth outlook being to the downside and risks to inflation outlook as 'balanced'.

Given the persistence in services inflation, the ECB is expected to maintain status quo in October while reinforcing the fact that it could ease policy further in a staggered manner.

Our base-case for the ECB easing the policy rate by 75bps over 2024 and 100bps in 2025 in response to below trend growth and easing in inflation pressures over the medium term.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum downpayment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

Views on the global economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Views on the Indian economy and markets by Mr. B. Prasanna.

05 Oct 24 06:05 PM Exclusive Videos

US recession fears might be overblown

24 Sep 24 01:00 AM Exclusive Videos

An insightful and engaging discussion on economy and market trends with the industry stalwarts

15 Jul 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Indian economy: Stronger for longer

07 Jun 24 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 26 Sep 2024

Q42024

Q12025

Q22025

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

NEWS FEED

i360 Indices

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

Events

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Disclaimer

Want us to help you with anything?
Request a Call back