Economic Research Desk

Latest Reports

View ALL Reports

Morning Market Starter

Read MoreDaily Reports
07th Dec 2022  –   08:45 am

India cereal inflation at cusp of reversal

Read MoreThematic Reports
05th Dec 2022  –   06:39 pm

The Weekly Update: Will the FOMC pivot?

Read MoreWeekly Reports
05th Dec 2022  –   06:16 pm

Gold: A trend reversal has taken place!

Read MoreMonthly Reports
05th Dec 2022  –   09:30 am

Monthly chartbook November 2022

Read MoreChartbook
07th Nov 2022  –   05:16 pm



What is your expected GDP growth (%) for India in FY23?

Thank you for your input!


Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services

i4Markets Index Mar-22

View chart
07th Apr 2022  –   06:26 pm

iD80 Index May-21

View chart
01st Jul 2021  –   00:00 am


Reserve Bank of India

In the September policy meet, the MPC hiked policy repo by 50bps to 5.90% (5-1 vote). As on date, the cumulative rate hikes stood at 190bps since May policy. MPC kept the stance unchanged (5-1 vote)to withdrawal of accommodation.

RBI expects inflation at 6.7% in FY23, 5.2% in FY24. We revised our inflation projection down to 6.7% from 6.8% earlier on the back of lower food inflation. Domestic growth outlook is resilient. However, exports are likely to remain muted on the back of global growth slowdown. GDP growth estimate for FY23 at 7%.

With US Fed looking at reducing the magnitude of rate hikes, RBI also likely to raise rate by 35bps . RBI’s peak rate expected at 6.5% with a downside risk.

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in November, the FOMC raised the policy rate by 75bps to the 3.75%-4.00% range while indicating that the pace of rate hikes could slow further, even as inflation concerns remain in place. QT framework was kept unchanged.

In the next policy meeting in December, we expect the FOMC to raise the policy rate by 50bps to the 4.25%-4.50% range while indicating via the dot plot that terminal rate will likely be around the 4.75%-5.00% range.

We see the FOMC ending its rate hiking cycle by March 2023 taking the terminal rate to 5% that will be followed by a prolonged pause over 2023 in response the the sharp fall in inflation rates that is expected over Q42022 and H12023.

Bank Of England

In its last policy meeting in November, the BoE raised the policy rates by 75bps to the 3% mark while providing a dovish guidance. The BoE stated that inflation is expected to undershoot and the economy is expected to be in recession over 2022 and 2023. It also stated that the market is over-estimating the peak rate.

In the December policy meeting, we expect the BoE to raise the policy rates by 50bps while providing a dovish guidance.

We see a terminal rate at 4% that will be achieved by Q12023 that will be followed by a prolonged pause.

European Central Bank

In its October policy meeting, the ECB raised its policy rates by 75bps. However, it provided a dovish forward guidance indicating that future actions will be data dependent and take on a meeting by meeting basis. Reinvestment program was kept in place along with a guidance that QT will be discussed in the next policy meeting in December.

We see a further 50bps hike in December policy meeting with a neutral data-dependent guidance. There could also be some clarity on whether it will embark on its own QT program.

We expect a terminal deposit rate at 2.25% implying that another 25bps hike in the January policy meeting is on the cards. In case, inflation surprises to the upside, it might be possible for the central bank to embark on raising rates even higher.

People's Bank of China

The PBOC delivered another 50 bps cut in the RRR in December, cut the one-year loan prime lending rate by 15 bps to 3.75% and cut the one-year medium-term loan facility rate by 10bps to 2.75% reflecting ongoing concerns about the real estate sector and the economy.

The PBOC has become increasingly concerned about inflation. Hence, we see limited possibility of further rate cuts and expect the central bank to move towards a liquidity neutral regime.






This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

Any information contained herein, should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy, sell or otherwise invest or deal in any securities, financial products/instruments or services offered by ICICI Bank or any other entity/person. ICICI Bank or any of its employees, officers and agents are not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. This content is generic and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Before entering into any transaction related to the information contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction and should seek your own financial, business, legal, tax and other advice regarding the appropriateness of entering into such transactions.

The material in this content is derived from sources ICICI Bank believes to be reliable but, have not been independently verified. In curating this content, ICICI Bank has relied upon and assumed the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. ICICI Bank makes no guarantee of the accuracy and completeness of factual or analytical data and is not responsible for errors of transmission or reception. The opinions contained in such material constitute the judgement of the relevant authors/speakers/contributors in relation to the matters which are the subject of such material as on the date of its publication, all of which are expressed without any responsibility on ICICI Bank’s part and are subject to change without notice. ICICI Bank has no duty to update this content, the opinions, factual or analytical data contained herein.

Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this content, which contain words or phrases such as 'will', 'would', etc., and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute 'forward-looking statements'. Certain statements in the video relating to a future period of time (including inter alia concerning ICICI Bank’s future business plans or growth prospects) are forward-looking statements intended to qualify for the 'safe harbor' under the applicable securities laws including the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to statutory and regulatory changes, international economic and business conditions, political or economic instability in the jurisdictions where ICICI Bank has its operations, increase in non-performing loans, unanticipated changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices, ICICI Bank’s growth and expansion in business, the adequacy of ICICI Bank’s allowance for credit losses, the actual growth in demand for banking products and services, investment income, cash flow projections, ICICI Bank’s exposure to market risks, changes in India’s sovereign rating, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which could result in fewer business opportunities, lower revenues, and an increase in the levels of non-performing assets and provisions, depending inter alia upon the period of time for which the pandemic extends, the remedial measures adopted by Governments and Central Banks, and the time taken for economic activity to resume at normal levels after the pandemic, as well as other risks detailed in the reports filed by ICICI Bank with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements contained herein, are based on assumptions that ICICI Bank believes to be reasonable as on the date of this video. ICICI Bank undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. Additional risks that could affect ICICI Bank’s future operating results are more fully described in ICICI Bank’s filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings are available at

This content is intended for distribution solely to the customers of ICICI Bank residing in India. No part of this material may be copied or redistributed by any recipient for any purpose without ICICI Bank’s prior written consent. Persons distributing this material (with ICICI Bank’s prior consent) must do so on their own risk and must satisfy themselves that it is lawful to do so.


Scroll to top