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Oil prices rise ahead of the OPEC meet

Indian Economic Update

  • India moves up one place to 68th spot on the Global Entrepreneurship Index of 2018.
  • Government is lobbying for a reduction in official interest rates in coming months as it expects inflation to stay close to a 4% target.
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects the Indian economy to grow by around 7% this fiscal and 7.4% next year.
  • Industry body FICCI said India's July-September GDP is expected to improve to 6.2% and rise further to 6.7% in the third quarter of the current financial year.
  • Tax collection under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) came in at Rs. 83346 cr in October, compared with a mop-up of Rs. 92150 cr in September.
  • S&P retains its sovereign rating for India at BBB- with a stable outlook, saying that a weak fiscal position, high government debt and low per capita income balances strong GDP growth.
  • Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion says FDI from April-September this fiscal jumped to $25.35 bn from $21.62 bn in the year-ago period.
  • India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $240.4 mn to $399.53 bn in the week to November 17.

Global Update

  • US GDP expanded at a 3.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014, and following the second quarter's 3.1% rate.
  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the global economy is on course to grow 3.6% this year before reaching 3.7% next year then ease back to 3.6% in 2019.
  • OECD forecasts growth in the US to pick up from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018, before easing to 2.1% in 2019.
  • US manufacturing PMI was 53.8 in November compared to 54.6 in October, while services PMI was 54.7 in November compared to 55.3 in October; the composite PMI was 54.6 in November compared to 55.2 in October.
  • China's industrial profits in October rose 25.1% from a year earlier to 745.4 bn Yuan, slowing from a 27.7% surge in September.
  • OECD expects the euro area to grow 2.4% this year before easing to 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.
  • OECD leaves its estimates for China unchanged, forecasting growth to slow from 6.8% this year to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019.

Equity

  • Indian benchmark indices ended slightly lower on Wednesday following North Korea's missile test and caution ahead of the release of domestic growth numbers.
  • Participants also awaited the outcome of the OPEC meeting scheduled for November 30, which will give further cues about the direction of crude oil prices.
  • In the week, profit booking by traders dragged the benchmark indices to their second straight day of losses.
  • Equities saw some sell-off as market participants reacted to S&P’s stable outlook on India’s sovereign rating. Upside movement was largely confined to mid-cap stocks.
  • During the week, Benchmark indices halted their longest winning streak in nearly three years on Tuesday due to profit booking by some investors and mixed cues from global equities.
  • Some caution was also prevalent ahead of the expiry of the November derivative series as traders rolled over their positions to the December futures.

 

During the week Sensex lost 1.57% to close at 33149.35 while Nifty declined 1.60% to close at 10226.55.

Debt

  • Market players avoided building significant positions, choosing to remain on the side-lines ahead of the release of domestic gross domestic product data for the September quarter and the Centre’s fiscal deficit numbers.
  • Rising crude oil prices and lack of an upgrade by rating agency S&P weighed on investor sentiment.
  • The heavy supply of gilts scheduled for sale in the truncated trading week put prices under pressure and prevented further gains.
  • Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of the release of domestic GDP data for the September quarter.

 

The 10Y benchmark yield ended at 7.06% as compared to the previous week’s close of 7.00%.

Oil

  • Crude prices have trimmed gains this week as uncertainty looming around the exit strategy of the output cut agreement among 24 nations. Markets have priced in an extension of the deal expiring in March 2018 until end of next year. However, Russia has voiced concerns over US shale producers benefiting from prices remaining above USD 60/ barrel, while also losing its competitiveness if the Ruble were to appreciate with prolonged price hikes.
  • The producer alliance has been widely predicted to extend its 1.8 million bpd output cut throughout 2018.
  • Crude oil prices fell on the NYMEX as growing uncertainty over the outcome of an OPEC meeting outweighed support from US data showing a decline in domestic crude stockpiles.
  • US crude oil inventories fell 3.4 mn barrels to 453.7 mn barrels for the week ended November 24.

Gold

  • Gold remained mostly unchanged on Wednesday amid a weaker dollar, while North Korea’s latest missile test had little impact on the safe haven metal.
  • The metal traded in a narrow range despite a series of economic news out of the US; including progress on tax cuts and Fed chair nominee, Jerome Powell's confirmation hearing.
  • During the week the yellow metal inched away from the 1300 handle as a modest dollar recovery and a pickup in US yields weighed on gold.
  • Gold edged higher as the dollar touched its two-year low against the Euro. Investors look ahead to a busy week of Federal Reserve speakers for fresh cues on likely trajectory of monetary policy.

Currency

  • During the week, the rupee was under pressure tracking the dollar’s strength following the release of US consumer confidence data, which hit a 17-year high in November.
  • The euro’s gains against the greenback also provided the rupee some support.
  • Oil importers’ month end dollar demand put the rupee under pressure and prevented further appreciation.
  • Weakness in the dollar index also supported the domestic currency. Dollar purchases by public sector banks and month end dollar demand by importers capped further gains.

 

Source: ICICI Bank Research, Bloomberg and CRISIL.