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Economic Research Desk

LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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NEWS FEED

India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% YoY in Q2FY25, led by broad-based weakness in investment and consumption despite government revenue spending seeing an uptick. Exports too have seen a moderation and imports fell as domestic demand was muted. GVA growth fell to 5.6% YoY with sharp moderation in industrial activity even as services activity maintained pace of growth and agriculture sector saw a pick-up in growth compared with Q1.

14 Hours ago

India has strongly rejected a counter-notification issued by the US, Australia, Canada, Argentina, and Ukraine at the World Trade Organization accusing India of under-reporting its market price support for rice and wheat. India described the notification as misleading.

3 Days ago

In September 2024, the gap between credit and deposit growth in the banking system narrowed to 90bps, down from 330bps in June 2024. This change reflects the effectiveness of the RBI’s November 2023 decision to increase risk weights by 25bps on unsecured consumer credit and bank lending to NBFCs, aimed at moderating growth in these segments.

4 Days ago

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UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart
05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart
29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart
22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart
15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart
08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In the October Policy meeting, the MPC kept the policy rate unchanged with a 5:1 majority and unanimously changed stance to neutral. Stance change is supportive of growth going forward and shows MPC is confident of aligning inflation to target (4%) over the medium-term.
While growth and inflation estimates have been kept unchanged for FY25, there is a change in quarterly trajectory with near-term growth revised lower and medium-term revised higher. In case of inflation, March 2025 and 2026 prints are benign at 4.2% and 4.1% respectively. The downward revision in medium-term inflation forecasts shows MPC believes food inflation should ease on the back of above normal monsoon this year and gives it room to support growth when a few data prints have been underwhelming.
US yields have surged after US elections with clear steepening bias visible and dollar is stronger. Given such a move in US yields, it is not easy for MPC to cut rates particularly when inflation is on the higher side of its tolerance band .This makes a case for MPC to move in Feb or Apr but it has ample of room to sound dovish on rates front in the policy in particular when FY25 growth estimate might be revised lower given H1 growth is lower than RBI’s forecast

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in September, the FOMC eased policy rates by 25bps in November while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. The Fed Chair emphasized that more easing could be required to bring the policy rate towards its neutral level.
The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps in the December policy meeting, although it remains a close call. The FOMC is expected to signal to the market that it will resort to a staggered easing path.
We expect aa further cumulative 100bps worth of easing over 2024 and 2025 resulting in a terminal rate of 3.50%-3.75%

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in November, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will resort to a staggered easing profile.
In its next policy meeting in December, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo while providing an unchanged guidance.
The BoE is expected to cut rates by a cumulative 100bps over 2025 and a further 50bps over 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in October, the ECB cut rates by 25bps while it maintained its data-dependent guidance. However, it indicated that further easing could continue reflecting concerns about the growth outlook.
In its policy meeting in December, concerns about disinflation and growth could prompt the ECB to cut rates by 25bps.
Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 125bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps with a possibility of a further 50bps cut, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.
We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.
/content/dam/icicibank/india/erg/calendar/Calendar%20events02-12-2024.csv

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 13 November 2024
 
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