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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

US financial market stress remains in place given that U.S. officials are considering ways to temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp coverage to cover all bank deposits. Treasury officials are reviewing whether regulators have the capacity to temporarily insure deposits bigger than the current USD 250,000 cap, without gaining consent from Congress. Furthermore, The Federal Home Loan Bank System issued USD 304bn in debt last week. These loans are considered to the lender of the last resort to avert stress in the mortgage market.

14 Hours ago

UBS Group AG agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG for CHF 3bn (USD 3.3bn) in a historic, government-brokered deal. The Swiss National Bank is offering a CNY 100bn liquidity assistance to UBS while the government is granting a CHF 9 bn guarantee for potential losses from assets UBS is taking over. Regulator Finma said about CHF 16bn of Credit Suisse bonds will become worthless to ensure private investors help shoulder the costs.

1 Days ago

US banks borrowed USD 164.8bn from two Federal Reserve backstop facilities that resulted in an expansion in the balance sheet that is taking place at the same time as QT is in operation.

4 Days ago

Please share your details to know more about Treasury Products & Services

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

In the February policy meet, the MPC hiked policy repo by 25bps to 6.50% (4-2 vote). As on date, the cumulative rate hikes stood at 250bps since May policy. MPC kept the stance unchanged (4-2 vote) to “withdrawal of accommodation”

Inflation estimate was raised for FY24 by 10bps 5.3% from 5.2% earlier, while Q4FY23 projection was revised down by 20bps to 5.7%. Growth estimate was revised lower by 10bps to 6.4%. Lower consumption and exports will be a drag on growth next year

Going forward, we believe future trajectory of rates depends upon evolving inflation dynamics. The policy rate differential with the US Fed is already narrow at 1.75% which will narrow further since US Fed will do 50bps incremental rate hike. Given this backdrop and at least two more rate hikes by the US Fed, we see RBI raising rates by another 25bps in April policy

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting that concluded in February, the FOMC slowed the pace of rate hikes by 25bps taking the policy rate to the 4.50%-4.75% in response to weakening economic indicators and softening inflation pressures. The central bank provided a data-dependent guidance

In the next policy meeting in March, we expect the central bank to raise the policy rate by 25bps while keeping the QT framework unchanged

In our base-case, we assume a terminal rate of 5.25%-5.50%. However, the risk of the central bank not hiking in May remains in place especially if there is strong evidence of sharp softening in economic activity

Bank of England

In the last policy meeting in February, the BoE raised the policy rate by 50bps while providing a data-dependent guidance. It also indicated that it expects inflation to undershoot sharply over the medium-term while risks of a recession remain firmly in place

In the policy meeting in March, we see a further 25bps increase with a dovish guidance

We see a terminal rate of 4.50% with the risk of further tightening if inflation pressures provide more persistent

European Central Bank

The ECB raised the policy rate by 50bps taking the deposit rate to the 2.5% mark and pre-committed to raising rates by a further 50bps in March. The central bank indicated that the risks to both growth and inflation had become more balanced, although focus remains on tackling the inflation risk

We expect a further 50bps in line with the guidance provided while inflation concerns are expected to remain in place

We expect a terminal rate of 3.25% that will be achieved by the May policy meeting followed by a prolonged pause

People's Bank of China

In the January policy meeting, the PBOC maintained status quo while indicating that monetary accommodation will remain firmly in place. It has, however, been injecting record amounts of liquidity via OMOs

The PBOC has become increasingly concerned about inflation. Hence, we see limited possibility of further rate cuts and expect the central bank to move towards a liquidity neutral regime in 2H2023 when there is more clarity on the state of the recovery

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

The Key Highlights From The RBI Monetary Policy, February 08, 2023

08 Feb 23 03:05 PM Media Bytes

Global Market Outlook 2023 Direct Talks

29 Jan 23 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

"Managing Growth, Investment & Currency - The Way Forward" Navigate 2023

18 Jan 23 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

RBI Hikes Repo Rate By 35 Basis Points

07 Dec 22 03:30 PM Media Bytes

Time to look at debt as an alternative asset class: B Prasanna, ICICI Bank

05 Dec 22 12:57 PM Featured Articles

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 21st February 2023

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