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LATEST INDIAN MARKET UPDATES

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Morning Market Starter

NEWS FEED

The IMF raised its economic growth projections from 3% YoY to 3.2% for 2024 that would be unchanged from 2023. The source of the upward revisions came from better than expected growth in advanced economies in both the US and European regions.

14 Hours ago

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly reiterated there’s no urgency to adjust interest rates, pointing to solid economic growth, a strong labor market and still-elevated inflation.

2 Days ago

Iran unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones on Saturday and during the early hours of Sunday targeting Israel. Iran’s widely anticipated missile and drone attack was defeated with the orchestrated help of the US, UK and Jordan who, alongside the Israeli military, ensured that all but a handful of ballistic missiles were neutralised overnight.

3 Days ago

14 Hours ago

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i360 Indices

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. Download the report to know more.

View chart

05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

UFI-29.05.22

During the week the labour market remained steady with unemployment rate index was marginally down vs. the week before.Download the report to know more.

View chart

29 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-22.05.22

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas increased thus, weighing on the overall index.Download the report to know more.

View chart

22 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-15.05.22

During the week unemployment rate witnessed considerable fall driven by reduction in rural unemployment while urban unemployment rate too registered a small fall. Labour force participation rate saw a marginal dip.Download the report to know more.

View chart

15 May 22 12:00 PM

UFI-08.05.22

Unemployment rate increased to 8.17% during the week vs. 7.39% seen in the previous week, led by a sharp rise in rural unemployment (8.04% vs 6.4% last week) while urban unemployment rate displayed a moderation (8.45% vs 9.46% last week).Download the report to know more.

View chart

08 May 22 12:00 PM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

At the April policy meeting, the MPC voted to keep repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and retain stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ with 5:1 vote each, with one external member votng for a rate cut and change in stance to 'neutral'

Growth and inflation forecasts for FY25 were retained at 7% and 4.5% respectively. Notably, while CPI forecast was kept unchanged, inflation estimate for all quarters other than Q3 was revised lower. RBI sees 4% inflation target in sight in March 2026. Despite this, MPC did not change stance since growth momentum gives MPC room to wait for inflation to ease from current 5% level before easing.

A normal monsoon should ensure lower food inflation, which gives MPC room to change stance in August when it can see how rains have played out. It also gives time to evaluate how energy prices are moving and the impact on domestic inflation as well as turn of global monetary cycle. Real rates are likely to peak at 2.7% in Q2 and at 2% in Q4FY25 if rates are unchanged. Thi sgives the MPC room for a 50bps rate cut cycle starting October, depending upon domestic and global factors

Federal Reserve

In its policy meeting in March, the FOMC maintained status quo, upgraded its growth as well as its inflation projections and emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive framework. The 'dot-plot' maintained its guidance of 75bps cut for 2024, changed its guidance from 100bps to 75bps cut for 2025 and indicated a further 75bps cut could take place in 2026.

Our base-case remains of status quo in May with the central bank emphasizing 'data-dependence' in terms of its future decision making.

Continued disinflation will likely open up space for the FOMC to reduce the policy rate by 75bps in 2024, 100bps in 2025 and 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in February, the BoE maintained status quo in a split vote. It dropped its tightening bias while indicating that the central bank would review how long further tightening would be required. However, it emphasized that it remains concerned about elevated inflation.

We expect the BoE to maintain status quo in March while not providing an explicit guidance to ease policy.

As inflation slows further and labour market cools, we see the BoE easing policy around June to August policy meeting with a cumulative 75bps-100bps expected over 2024.

European Central Bank

In its latest policy meeting in March, the ECB maintained status quo while indicating that it will have more information available by June in deciding on whether it would want to cut policy rates. Its economic projections showed that growth was expected to remain flat while disinflation was expected to continue to remain in place.

In its policy meeting in April, we see the ECB maintaining status quo while providing further guidance of a possible staggered rate cutting cycle that could in the offing.

We expect the ECB to ease policy by 100bps over 2024 with the first rate cut expected in the June policy meeting.

People's Bank of China

On the back of substantial easing already delivered, the PBoC cut the RRR by 50bps in February 2024 while it continues to inject liquidity via OMOs and its other refinancing programs

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts over 2024 accomapnied by a further 50bps cut in the RRR.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

Events

17th Nov

Events

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View ALL Reports

TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

India breaking out

15 Jan 24 03:05 PM Media Bytes

Growth, Monetary Policies & Markets

30 Oct 23 03:05 PM Media Bytes

India’s inflation and US Monetary policy outlook

13 Oct 23 03:05 PM Media Bytes

U.S. Economy to Remain Resilient

21 Sep 23 03:05 PM Media Bytes

Real Estate and Urbanisation to Boost Economy

15 Sep 23 03:05 PM Media Bytes

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 22 March 2024

Q12024

Q22024

Q32024

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